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The Fed's "non-recession interest rate cut", the traditional defense strategy will not work.
With the Federal Reserve opening its easing cycle for the first time in four years, the stock market's interest rate cut trading manual has changed?
Generally speaking, when the Fed cuts interest rates to boost the economy, investors tend to choose defensive stocks and high dividend stocks to avoid growth stocks, including the technology industry, which are easily affected by the macro-economy.
However, due to the resilience of the US economy at the time of this interest rate cut, the interest rate cut has brought about a rise in technology stocks, a record high in the stock market, sustained economic growth and a better profit prospect for enterprises.
Judging from the flow of funds after the interest rate cut, investors are shifting from defensive stocks to cyclical stocks.
According to the data of Goldman Sachs Group's bulk brokerage business, last week, hedge funds bought TMT shares (technology, media, communications) for the third consecutive week, and their net positions reached the largest in four months. At the same time, defense stocks showed the largest net selling in more than two months, and the outflow of funds from public utilities stocks reached the largest scale in more than five years.
Frank Monkam, senior portfolio manager of Antimo, said:
"The Fed chose to cut interest rates sharply in a fairly relaxed financial environment, which is a clear signal to the market that it should take an offensive position."
"Traditional defensive stocks, such as utilities or consumer stocks, may not be very attractive."
Why is this interest rate cut different from history?
Why is this rate cut a "non-recession rate cut"?
According to the data of Bank of America, eight of the nine easing cycles since 1970 occurred when corporate profits slowed down. However, Savita Subramanian, head of the bank's stock and quantitative strategy, wrote in a report to clients: The current situation is that profits are expanding, which is beneficial to cyclical stocks and large-cap stocks.
This means that the Fed didn't cut interest rates out of recession, Subramanian said:
"The Fed doesn't have a script—every easing cycle is different."
However, judging from the historical interest rate cut cycle, every time the Fed cuts interest rates, it will often drive the overall market to rise.
According to Bank of America data, in the absence of recession, since 1970, S&P has risen by an average of 21% in the year after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time.
Investment style switching: banking, technology and real estate are sought after.
So, what kind of investment style did the Fed's "non-recession interest rate cut" bring?
As Subramanian said, investors are turning to cyclical stocks, large-cap stocks and other growing industries.
Thanks to the stimulating effect of the relaxed environment on consumption, industries such as real estate and automobiles are also expected to achieve growth. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:
"You will see excited consumers-the decline in mortgage interest rates will stimulate consumption, both in the housing market and the automobile market."
Utility stocks in traditional trading strategies also continue to be hot, because the AI investment boom has increased the attractiveness of the industry. In fact, utility stocks have risen by 26% this year, making them the second best performing sector in S&P..
Risk warning and exemption clause
The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.