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View detailsAmerican debt: America will decline! Us stocks: us soft landing! Who do you trust?
The trend of U.S. debt and U.S. stocks are sending diametrically opposite signals, and the macroeconomic outlook of the United States in 2024 is becoming more and more confusing. On the one hand, the typical warning signal of economic recession that the yield curve of US bonds is upside down has been going on for more than a year, and the futures market has been betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by 130 basis points next year. In a report released on Thursday, Goldman Sachs commented that if there is such a large rate cut, it is not like an "adjustment rate cut" to reflect the slowdown in inflation, but more like a "recession rate cut". The stock market presents a different landscape. The Nasdaq has rebounded by 13% from its low point in October, and cyclical stocks have outperformed defensive stocks. Stock market investors obviously don't believe that the US economy will fall into recession. Goldman Sachs is cautious about the prospect of US stocks. The bank pointed out that the Fed's interest rate cut would not exceed 75 basis points if the economic growth did not slow down more sharply, and suggested that investors should hedge against the market correction. The analyst wrote: On the market side, we have pointed out two important challenges in transforming our benign macro-view into a sustainable and positive market prospect. The first is the valuation, because market pricing is closer to our benign view than consensus; Secondly, given that we are more optimistic about US economic growth, the Fed may delay to cut interest rates. These two challenges have once again become the focus, making the market more vulnerable to negative factors. The market will soon further tend to price our more benign views. Although we expect that the weak version of "Fed's water release" may support the market, this support is conditional on weak growth, which is not obvious at present. These are not reasons for us to turn to cautious views or short positions, but they prove that we should take advantage of the current low level of stock volatility to increase hedging, so that investors can continue to do more or increase risks during the callback. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.
2023-12-08 -
View detailsOne-sided debt, the market is careful to hit the face.
Ven Ram, a cross-asset strategist at Bloomberg, said that from the current market situation, investors are more willing to buy bonds than stocks, and this preference has reached a 20-year high. Ven Ram said that this optimism is not without reason: since the end of last year, the overall inflation rate in the United States has dropped from 6.5% to half. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, such as the core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure), is currently 3.5%, lower than its forecast of 3.7% at the end of the year. Therefore, the market predicts that the Federal Reserve may cut its benchmark interest rate by as much as 125 basis points by the end of 2024. Moreover, the US economy is still resilient, and the neutral interest rate (that is, the ideal policy level that neither stimulates inflation nor inhibits the labor market) may have risen after the epidemic. Therefore, if the neutral interest rate is indeed high, it may prevent the Fed from relaxing its policy too quickly, and even if inflation slows down, it is unlikely that the Fed will cut interest rates significantly. The economic situation may also be much better than policy makers estimated. The actual performance of the US economy is far better than the Federal Reserve's forecast for 2023 at this time last year (when it was predicted to grow by 0.5%), and the current forecast has been raised to 2.1%. Next year, the Fed forecasts growth of 1.5%, slightly lower than its long-term growth forecast of 1.8%. The Fed also believes that in order to achieve a balanced labor market, the unemployment rate needs to rise from the current 3.9% to 4.1%. Risk warning and exemption clause
2023-12-07 -
View detailsAfter Goldman Sachs, the world's largest asset manager also issued a warning: the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is "overdone"
At present, the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 100 basis points next year, starting from the second quarter. But BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, believes that these bets are "overdone". BlackRock strategists said on Tuesday that the global market will experience greater volatility in 2024 because the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate less than many investors expected. "In our view, the market's expectation of interest rate cuts is a bit overdone," Wei Li, BlackRock's global chief investment strategist, said at a media roundtable. "To achieve such a path of interest rate cuts, (the economy) must have serious problems. Therefore, we do believe that the Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of next year, but compared with previous economic cycles and recessions, the number of interest rate cuts is much less. " According to CME's FedWatch tool, the market currently expects that the possibility of the US benchmark interest rate falling by more than 125 basis points before December next year is more than 50%. After there were signs that inflation in the United States was cooling down and the job market was weak, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds fell by more than 80 basis points in the past month, which pushed the US stock market to rebound. The S&P 500 index hit a closing high in 2023 last week. The benchmark stock index has risen nearly 19% so far this year. It is worth noting that BlackRock is not the only financial institution that warns of "excessive interest rate cut expectations". Goldman Sachs pointed out a few days ago that the financial market expects the Fed to cut interest rates too much next year. The bank's economists only expect the Fed to cut interest rates once in 2024, most likely in the fourth quarter of next year. Opportunities exist in these areas. BlackRock is still optimistic about short-term treasury bonds and warns that rising structural inflation will make it difficult for long-term bond yields to fall sharply from the current level. The agency said that investors should be prepared to get more returns from the rate of return than from the appreciation. Kristy Akullian, a senior investment strategist at BlackRock, said that although the market's expectation for the Fed to cut interest rates may be too high, the central bank may have touched the peak interest rate, which makes fixed income more attractive as a whole. She also pointed out that the biggest risk now is to hold too much cash. In terms of stocks, BlackRock is optimistic about the opportunities of artificial intelligence stocks and technology stocks (especially the memory industry). The agency holds a small reduction in the overall US stock market, but is still optimistic about the sectors such as industry and health care. Tony DeSpirito, global chief investment officer of BlackRock's fundamental stocks, said that in 2024, the changing assumptions about interest rates may lead to a "windshield wiper market" (shock market), in which different industries will be favored or out of favor quickly. He is particularly optimistic about memory memory chip companies, which he believes will play a key role in the development of artificial intelligence. Among emerging markets, BlackRock is bullish on India and Mexico. The agency prefers emerging market assets to assets in developed markets.
2023-12-06 -
View detailsFounder of MBMG: The Fed is out of touch with reality and must cut interest rates five times next year.
Paul Gambles, co-founder and managing partner of MBMG Group, said that the Fed needs to cut interest rates at least five times next year to avoid the US economy falling into recession. In an interview, Gambles said that the Fed is behind the curve in cutting interest rates. In order to avoid extreme and long-term monetary tightening cycles, it must cut interest rates at least five times in 2024 alone. "I think the Fed's policies are now out of touch with economic factors and reality. You can't assume when the Fed will wake up and start to smell the damage they actually do to the economy," Gambles warned. At present, the policy interest rate in the United States is 5.25%-5.50%, which is the highest level in 22 years. According to the data of CME Fed Observation Tool, traders now expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points as early as March 2024. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said yesterday: "It is still too early to declare victory over inflation." This has cooled the market's expectation of cutting interest rates next year. In his prepared speech, Powell said: "It is too early to conclude that we have taken enough restrictive stance, or to speculate when the policy may be relaxed." Recent data in the United States show that price pressure has eased, but Powell stressed that policymakers plan to "keep policy restrictions" until they are convinced that inflation is steadily returning to the central bank's 2% target. However, the financial market thought his remarks were dovish, which led to the major stock indexes on Wall Street hitting new highs, and the yield of US Treasury bonds fell sharply last Friday. The current view is that the Fed has actually raised interest rates. Does the market think the Fed has defeated inflation? The consumer price index (CPI) of the US Department of Labor, which measures a basket of commonly used goods and services, climbed 3.2% in October compared with the same period of last year, but it was the same as last month, boosting the hope that the aggressive interest rate hike cycle of the Federal Reserve began to lower inflation. David Roche, president and global strategist of Independent Strategy, said that unless energy or food has a major external impact on US inflation, it is "almost certain" that the Fed has ended raising interest rates, which means that the next interest rate adjustment will be to cut interest rates. Roche said, "I will stick to 3%, which I think has been reflected in many asset prices. I don't think we will reduce the inflation rate to 2% again. It is deeply embedded in the economy by all kinds of things. " "The Fed doesn't need to fight as fiercely as before. Therefore, the real inflation rate will be higher than before, rising from 2% to 3%, "Roche said. He correctly predicted the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the global financial crisis in 2008. It remains to be seen what the interest rate plan of the Federal Reserve will be at its next meeting on December 13th and the last meeting of this year. Most market participants expect the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged.
2023-12-05 -
View detailsXu Zhengyu: Hong Kong financial center adheres to international characteristics.
Photo: Xu Zhengyu, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, said that the scale of assets under management in Hong Kong's asset and wealth management business has been growing steadily. In recent months, there have been many posts on social platforms, describing the Hong Kong market as "the ruins of financial centers". Yesterday, the Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, Xu Zhengyu, published a blog titled "International Financial Center with Time-tested Experience", saying that Hong Kong's financial market has the characteristics of "internationality", "comprehensiveness" and "growth" and has become an "international financial center site", which is totally untenable. He continued that in the medium and long term, the opportunities faced by Hong Kong's financial market will definitely outweigh the challenges. The SAR Government, in conjunction with various regulatory agencies, will continue to promote the implementation of new policies, measures and projects, adhere to international characteristics, continue to finance Chinese and foreign capital, and add new impetus to the sustainable development of the market. Solid foundation and no fear of economic cycle fluctuations Xu Zhengyu pointed out that the uncertain global economic outlook, unstable geopolitical situation and the interest rate environment of "maintaining high interest rates for a long time" inevitably restricted the short-term performance of Hong Kong's financial market, especially the spot stock trading and IPO initial financing amount. However, Hong Kong's financial market is solid and resilient, and many businesses continue to record growth in the face of global turmoil. In the past, it went through different economic cycles, and now it is the same. He went on to say that international finance centre's status is not a tall building or a stone tablet, and pressure can make it fall. International finance centre's achievements depend on the unique status of "one country, two systems", the long-term efforts of the SAR government, regulators and the industry, and the reputation of international investors and financiers. The SAR Government has the confidence, confidence and ability to continuously build an international financial center with more depth and breadth. Xu Zhengyu also cited the data of Hong Kong's financial market as proof. For example, the total market value of the securities market was HK$ 30.8 trillion at the end of October this year, up 17% from HK$ 26.4 trillion in the same period last year. In terms of product development, thanks to the continuous growth of ETF southbound trading volume and a series of market microstructure reforms in recent years, the average daily turnover of exchange-traded funds in the first 10 months of this year reached HK$ 11.6 billion, up 25% year-on-year. In the derivatives market, the daily average number of contracts in the same period exceeded 1.35 million, up 7% year-on-year, which further reflected the strategic function of Hong Kong as a global risk management center. In terms of connectivity, the average daily turnover of bonds through Northbound Link in the first three quarters of this year reached 40.5 billion yuan, up 26% year-on-year, a record high. The target scope of Northbound Stock Connect was expanded in March this year, driving the average daily turnover in the second to third quarters of this year to exceed 113 billion yuan, an increase of 17% over the first quarter of this year. Financial management business is expected to rank first in the world. In terms of asset and wealth management business, Xu Zhengyu pointed out that in the long run, the scale of assets under management in Hong Kong's asset and wealth management business has been growing steadily, with an increase of 143% in the past 10 years. Recently, a credible market strategy research company pointed out that the average annual compound growth rate of assets under management in Hong Kong was 13% from 2017 to 2022, which was the highest among all business centers in the world. Hong Kong is also expected to become the largest business center in the world by 2025.
2023-12-04 -
View detailsForeign investors are optimistic about Hong Kong betting on Chuangke Finance.
AstraZeneca, the top ten pharmaceutical company in the world, set up a research and development center in Hong Kong, focusing on drug research and development such as cells and gene therapy. The Asian era has come and become the focus of the world economy and finance. As a window and gateway to the mainland, Hong Kong has an important role and position, and its international characteristics are particularly competitive in the world. At present, Hong Kong's economy focuses on finance, and with the gradual development of science and technology, its development prospects are limitless. In fact, Asia, including China, has become the main growth engine of the global economy. In the past 25 years, the Asian economy has grown at an average rate of 5.5%, maintaining a moderate and high-speed growth, accounting for two-thirds of the world economic growth. Asia's share in the global economy has increased significantly from 30% in 1998 to over 45% at present, and it is expected to exceed 50% soon. Asia is the main driving force and development opportunity of global economic growth, and international finance centre's position as a business hub will continue to benefit from the inflow of international funds into Asia. Silicon Valley enterprises plan to expand in Hong Kong. In addition to innovative technology, Hong Kong finance is also the focus of foreign bets, especially on the development of wealth management business. At present, Hong Kong is the largest international asset management center in Asia, the largest cross-border private wealth management center, hedge fund center and the second largest private equity fund center in Asia, and an ideal place for enterprises in the region to set up treasury centers. Hong Kong's financial advantages are constantly increasing, and it will have the opportunity to surpass Switzerland to become the first brother of global wealth management in the future. In fact, at present, the steady promotion of the virtual asset market trading center in Hong Kong can complement and promote the development of financial technology and wealth management business, because many family offices are more interested in investing in virtual assets, which greatly increases the incentive for their families to settle in Hong Kong. Virtual assets steadily push for license multiplication In short, foreign investment has maintained firm confidence in Hong Kong's economy, and the expected positive effects of grabbing talents and enterprises have gradually emerged, and the good momentum of supporting Hong Kong's economic recovery will continue into next year.
2023-12-01 -
View detailsWhen this indicator reaches zero, the Fed may soon stop QT.
The analysis believes that we should pay attention to the trading volume of overnight RRP tools: when the trading volume drops to zero, it may indicate that the Fed needs to stop QT soon. Generally speaking, the quantitative tightening policy (QT) of the Federal Reserve will exhaust bank deposits, but in this tightening cycle, this situation has changed significantly, and the level of bank deposits is basically the same this year. The level of bank deposits has remained stable, indicating that the Fed has a long way to go before it stops shrinking its balance sheet. Some analysts pointed out the strange phenomenon in the QT process of the Federal Reserve: while the Federal Reserve steadily reduced the size of its bond portfolio, bank deposits did not decrease. Theoretically, QT should be a mechanical process. When the Fed buys bonds, it creates deposits, so when the Fed reduces its holdings of bonds, the deposits should be reduced. However, this did not happen. On the contrary, the liquidity came from the reverse repurchase instrument (RRP) of the Federal Reserve, that is, money market funds stored funds overnight. As Mark Cabana, an interest rate strategist at Bank of America, said, the problem is that banks are absorbing deposits at all costs. "Banks are bidding for liquidity," he told the media on Wednesday's conference call on bond market outlook. Cabana pointed out that in order to attract depositors away from money market funds, banks are offering higher-yielding cash products. For example, three-month and six-month certificates of deposit yield 5.6%, while if these deposits are placed in money market funds, the yield is only 5.4%. In other words, it is unprofitable for banks to hold these deposits. Then, banks will obviously lose money (at least in theory), so why should they hoard liquidity? Cabana attributed it to "the elephant in the room with more than $500 billion": the book loss of the bond portfolio. Bank of America itself is one of the banks with the most serious losses in this respect, with a book loss of $131 billion in the third quarter of its held-to-maturity securities. In addition, banks are encouraged to reduce their dependence on the lender of last resort, the Federal Housing Loan Bank. In a report on Wednesday, Cabana wrote that regulators gradually abandoned this quite popular source of funds, and with the bankruptcy of SVB and First Republic earlier this year, banks of all sizes became cautious in managing cash: Commercial banks still remember the crisis of regional bank failures earlier this year. Banks know that the best way to prevent similar fate is to hold a large amount of cash as a buffer. The recent regulatory guidance shows that we should not rely on the advance payment of the Federal Housing Loan Bank during the period of market pressure, which reduces the traditional financing sources of banks and may increase the cash buffer. The recent bank pressure and the decrease in available sources of funds have led to an increase in the cash buffer. Cabana said that although the Federal Reserve's Bank Term Financing Plan (BTFP) helps to ensure that banks don't have to sell held-to-maturity bonds at a discount price when funds are tight (and reduce their entire bond portfolio), it should be ashamed to use this tool. Much like the discount window, the Federal Reserve's BTFP is regarded as an emergency tool for banks facing pressure and the risk of bankruptcy, so it may be considered more cautious to maintain a liquidity buffer. Cabana said in an interview with the media that using BTFP is "a sign of weakness. If you want to be regarded as an independent entity bank without the support of official departments, then you can't do this". In addition, another reason is that the expectation of the end of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle is still heating up. Cabana said that money market funds have been extending the weighted average term of their investments in recent weeks, which may be because people think that the Fed has already raised interest rates. Cabana said that the weighted average maturity (WAM) of money market fund investment "rose sharply after the employment report and CPI were released in October". Money market funds "really believe that the Fed has raised interest rates". If banks really feel the urgent need to hoard liquidity, it may mean that the other part of the Fed's policy tightening-reducing the balance sheet-will need to end earlier than economists expected. Cabana said that we should pay attention to the trading volume of overnight RRP tools: when the trading volume drops to zero, it may indicate that the Fed needs to stop QT soon. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.
2023-11-30 -
View detailsAckman said again: I don't believe in the "soft landing" of the United States, and I bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as soon as the first quarter of next year.
Earlier than market expectations, Ackman bet that the Fed would cut interest rates in the first quarter of next year. Bill Ackman, a hedge fund tycoon and founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, said that the Fed would cut interest rates as early as the first quarter of next year, otherwise it would face the risk of a "hard landing". Ackman's bet was earlier than the market expected. According to reports, swap market data show that traders have fully digested the expectation of interest rate cuts in June next year, among which the possibility of interest rate cuts in May next year is about 80%. According to the FedWatch tool observed by Zhishang Institute, as of November 28th, it is estimated that the possibility of interest rate cuts in May and June next year is 70% and 88% respectively. Ackman said that if the Fed continues to keep the interest rate within the range of about 5.5% when the inflation trend is below 3%, it will be a "very high real interest rate". Since March 2022, the Fed's interest rate hike cycle has reached the fastest speed in 40 years, raising the US interest rate to 5.25-5.5%; The core CPI data of the United States in October exceeded expectations and cooled to 4%, the lowest since September 2021. According to the report, Ackman does not believe that the US economy will move towards the so-called "soft landing", that is, the Fed will raise interest rates without triggering a recession. In other words, it is reported that Ackman has seen evidence of economic weakness, and he thinks: "If the Fed does not start to cut interest rates as soon as possible, there is a real risk of a hard landing." Ackman, who accurately shorted US stocks during the epidemic, once again made great strides this year. He successfully shorted US debt in the past three months and accurately closed his position at a low point. In August this year, after Fitch downgraded the credit rating of the United States, Ackman publicly stated that it would short the 30-year US Treasury bonds, because it predicted that the yield of the 30-year US Treasury bonds would climb to 5.5%, which might happen soon. From August to October, the yield of 30-year US bonds rose by more than 80 basis points, once exceeding 5%, but gradually fell back from November. At the end of October, Ackman also said on Twitter that its Pershing Plaza Asset Management has covered short bets on US Treasury bonds. The reason for closing the position is that he thinks that the US economic growth may slow down more than expected, and then the Fed should gradually start to cut interest rates. He said that from the current real interest rate level in the United States, the current interest rate is close enough to the restrictive level. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.
2023-11-29 -
View detailsDeutsche Bank: The Fed will cut rates by 175 basis points next year, the first 50 basis points in June
Analysts on Monday expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more than the market currently expects as the U.S. economy moves into a mild recession in the first half of next year. In an outlook note, Deutsche Bank economists forecast a rate cut of 175 basis points in 2024. Deutsche Bank expects the Fed to cut rates by an initial 50 basis points at its June 2024 meeting, followed by a further 125 basis points over the rest of the year. Given the Fed's current rate of 5.25% to 5.5%, this would bring it down to 3.5% to 3.75% by the end of the year. In contrast, the data show that traders are currently expecting a rate of 4.48 percent by December 2024. Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, said in an interview that the bank expects two quarters of negative U.S. economic growth in the first half of 2024, which would cause the unemployment rate to "rise substantially" from 3.9 percent now to 4.6 percent by the middle of next year. "We expect the economy to enter a soft patch in the first half of next year, which will lead to more aggressive rate cuts from the middle of the year," he said. At the same time, economic weakness is expected to "ease inflationary pressures." In a report released Monday, the bank said it expects a "mild recession" in the U.S. economy in the first half of 2024. Although the Fed has raised interest rates by 525 basis points since March 2022, the U.S. economy so far appears to have avoided recession predictions. In fact, Ryan said, "If things stabilize again in the future, the Fed's rate cuts will be much smaller."
2023-11-28 -
View detailsGlobal inflation is slowing down and currency policy remains to be changed
Towards the end of the year, trading in the foreign exchange market is expected to become quieter. Forex outlook for December Li Ming, economic analyst at Baohua Century Capital Markets, said that most market traders and investors will choose to "end the year late" in December, while making plans for next year, so excluding sudden and unpredictable circumstances, including the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine conflict and other sharp changes, it is expected that various financial market products will maintain a narrow range in December. He pointed out that with inflation in major countries around the world falling significantly, it is expected that the aggressive pace of interest rate hikes in the past two years by the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will come to an end, and may start to cut interest rates as soon as next summer. However, the central bank will still depend on the inflation data and economic trends at the time before making the final decision. In Japan, another major economy, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its quantitative easing monetary policy unchanged. The dollar has fallen so far recently that it can recover Mr Lee added that the US dollar had developed separately against major currencies during the year, falling against the Euro, Sterling and Swiss Franc, but rising against the Japanese yen, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Canadian dollar. As of November 22, the 52-week range of the AMEX ranged from 99.58 to 107.35, down 3.97% year on year. Overall, investors focused on the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December, future monetary policy and economic outlook. The United States this year's economic development is better than other major developed countries, inflation figures have fallen significantly, he predicted that this good pace of economic development will continue into the first half of next year, favorable support for the dollar exchange rate trend. The headline consumer price index (CPI) slowed to 3.2 percent year-on-year in October from 3.7 percent, while the core CPI slowed to 4 percent from 4.1 percent, both below market expectations. Liang Yanying, director of ShangGu, said that the inflation pressure in the United States appears to be easing, but the fact is that the CPI has just started to change the calculation method, using the 12-month Moving average (Moving average) to smooth out the sharp rise and fall data. This makes the CPI may not change much in the future, but it is difficult to fall rapidly. With the latest interest rate futures showing that almost 95% of the market does not expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December, he also agreed that there was a good chance that the administration would hold its fire in December. Liang's expectation, due to the recent downward adjustment of the American Exchange index is more rapid and large, so it is not ruled out that the American Exchange will rebound in December, but the increase is not expected to be too large. The pound is Mired in volatility and fears of a prolonged recession Since the beginning of this year, the pound has stabilized significantly against the dollar, temporarily recording a rise of about 3.27%, but it is still down about 6.23% over the past three years. He said Britain and the euro zone were in a tough spot, forecasting that the UK could be in recession for two to three quarters from the third quarter of this year and post negative growth of 0.2 percent in the first two to three quarters of 2024. On interest rate policy, he believes that the Bank of England's aggressive interest rate hike attitude in the past is coming to an end, but the tight Labour market in the UK will continue to push up employee salaries and service sector inflation will remain high. He expects the pound to move between 1.22 and 1.27 in December. The euro's inability to boost the economy is dragging it down The euro is up about 1.72 percent against the dollar this year and has lost 8.06 percent over the past three years. Li said that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the epidemic and other negative factors drag down the pace of economic recovery in the euro zone, he forecast that the euro zone will enter a mild recession, labor market tightness will ease, and forecast that the euro zone unemployment rate will gradually rise to 6.5%. Eur/USD is expected to trade in the 500-point range between 1.06 and 1.11 in December. In addition, euro area inflation has fallen significantly in recent months, but core inflation and services inflation figures remain hot. After the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 0.25 percent in September, it issued a dovish statement after the meeting, so he believes that the central bank from the beginning of last year to start a sustained pace of interest rate hike will not rule out the end, and forecast that the second half of next year there is downward pressure on interest rates, so as to reduce the pressure on business costs and stimulate national consumption will effectively drive the economy to stabilize. The yen has fallen more than 14 percent this year and is struggling to recover The yen has been the worst performing major currency this year, falling 14.12% per dollar this year and 43.12% over the past three years. Since the Bank of Japan's monetary policy is very different from that of other European and American central banks and pursues ultra-loose monetary policy, investors tend to choose the yen as a carry trade to gain interest rate and exchange rate gap. On the trend of December, the yen pair is expected to move between 146 and 151. He added that Japan's lack of natural resources, such as crude oil and minerals, has pushed up manufacturing costs, and its aging population is difficult to compete with other countries, and he believes the Bank of Japan may consider tightening monetary policy after April next year. Australian dollar did not rush to cut interest rates on 68 US cents Mainstream commodity currencies fell in tandem during the year, with the Australian dollar falling about 3.96% against the US dollar, while the cumulative depreciation of about 10.19% over the past three years. The Reserve Bank of Australia just raised interest rates in November by 0.25 percent to a 12-year high of 4.35 percent, and Lee believes this is the end of a long string of rate hikes. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia may have room to cut interest rates later than central banks in Europe and the United States, and the first cut is expected to be in September next year. This year, Australia's overall economy is developing steadily, the annual economic growth is expected to be 1.9%, and the economy will also rise by 1.6% next year, which will drive Australian property prices increasingly hot. He forecast a low of 63 cents and a high of 68 cents for the Australian dollar in December. The human currency exchange rate continues to be fixed at the 7.12 level The offshore yuan has traded in the range of 6.6969 to 7.3684 per US dollar over the past 52 weeks, falling only about 0.51% on an annual basis. Mr Lee expects the Mainland's economic growth to range from 5 to 5.5 per cent this year, but to slow to 4.9 per cent next year, mainly because the central government has not launched a major stimulus package. In addition, the Mainland's huge real estate and local debt crises, the decrease in foreign investment inflows and the decline in national consumption sentiment have added to the concerns about the Mainland's economic development. Going into December, he expects the offshore yuan to trade in a range of 7.12 to 7.2 per dollar.
2023-11-27