Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three times this year, but believes that rising rates will not dampen the surge in investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. Meanwhile, several Fed officials have spoken out, urging swift action to curb inflation, significantly increasing expectations for tighter monetary policy. Moynihan told CNBC that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates three times, in September, November, and December. He expects inflation to fall to the "mid-2%" level by the end of 2027, after which it will gradually decline further into the Fed's long-term 2% target range. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari clearly stated that gradual rate hikes should begin now: "I'd rather move forward in small steps now than be forced into a sharp tightening later when inflation has become deeply entrenched." At the market level, CME FedWatch tool data shows a 56.9% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September, 53.2% in October, and 43.7% in December. As of press time, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rose slightly by 0.02%, the Nasdaq ETF (QQQ) declined by 0.37%, and the Dow Jones ETF (DIA) gained 0.8%. Three Interest Rate Hike Pathways: Moynihan's Rate Forecast Moynihan expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three times in a row in September, November, and December to bring inflation under control. "If data performs better than expected—just as last month's figures exceeded market expectations—I believe they will adjust their assessment. But for now, they believe three rate hikes will be sufficient to achieve control over inflation." On inflation trends, Moynihan expects PCE to fall to the "mid-2%" range by the end of 2027, then further converge toward the Fed's long-term target. He noted that inflation had previously been easing, but price pressures from tariffs and the impact of geopolitical conflicts caused it to rebound, though these factors are now gradually receding. Data released last week by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—rose 3.7% year-on-year in June; the core PCE, excluding food and energy, increased 3.3% year-on-year, a slight decline from May's 3.4%, and rose 0.1% month-on-month. AI investment logic remains unchanged: high interest rates unlikely to hinder data center expansion Despite rising expectations of interest rate hikes, Moynihan believes this will not significantly impact investment in AI infrastructure. He pointed out that financing currently used by companies for AI infrastructure development is primarily short-term, limiting the direct effects of higher interest rates. He further stated that the returns from data center construction are high enough that even with rising long-term bond interest rates, the relevant companies have the capacity to absorb additional financing costs. This assessment suggests, in Moynihan's view, that the underlying logic of AI capital spending does not depend on a low-interest-rate environment. Fed's internal hawkish tone grows: Several officials back rate hikes Hawkish voices within the Federal Reserve are gaining momentum. At last week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Fed voted 9 to 3 to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%. However, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan dissented, all favoring a 25-basis-point rate hike. Kashkari said in a CNBC interview that corporate earnings are strong and both consumer and labor markets remain resilient, adding, "Looking at these data, I don't see evidence that current monetary policy is particularly restrictive." He suggested small, gradual rate hikes starting in September to prevent inflation from becoming more entrenched. Although Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook voted to hold steady last week, her language was notably tighter. In a speech in Alaska, she stated, "If I don't see signs of sustained inflation easing in the near term, I am ready to act." Cook pointed out that with inflation remaining above target for five consecutive years, the risk of prices and wage-setting behavior becoming anchored at higher levels is rising, adding, "We don't have the luxury of waiting as we did in different circumstances." Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, who has no voting power this year, directly stated that inflation remains too high, higher interest rates are needed to bring it down, and the current monetary policy stance is not restrictive. Market pricing: Interest rate hike expectations have been partially reflected The market has now begun to price in expectations of multiple rate hikes this year. According to CME FedWatch tool data, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September stands at 56.9%, 53.2% in October, and 43.7% in December—roughly aligning with Moynihan's forecast of three rate increases. In the bond market, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) rose slightly by 0.13%, while the iShares 7–10 Year Treasury ETF (IEF) edged down 0.03%, with overall stable movements reflecting that market expectations regarding the pace of interest rate hikes are still being digested. Risk Warning and Disclaimer Markets involve risks; invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at the user's own risk.

Major global central banks are shifting some of the responsibility for curbing inflation to bond markets in exchange for greater flexibility. Iranian tensions triggered sharp oil price fluctuations, prompting both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England to suggest that the recent surge in yields has already tightened financial conditions to some extent—enough to substitute for actual interest rate hikes—allowing both central banks to hold fire and wait for inflation trends to become clearer. Federal Reserve Chair Waller last week attributed part of the tightening in financial conditions to the fading of forward guidance, saying markets are now "playing the game rather than watching the referee." Bank of England Governor Bailey also noted that financial conditions have tightened and yield curves have steepened due to the Middle East war, dampening emerging inflation pressures. However, this "hands-off" approach is not without risks. Several analysts have warned that market-driven tightening has limited strength, and if energy price shocks spill over into broader inflation, a delayed response from central banks could repeat the mistakes of the early 2020s—when pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict converged—forcing more aggressive tightening measures that would end up inflicting greater damage on the economy. Yields surge, market "substitutes" for rate hikes Rising government bond yields can permeate into the real economy by increasing borrowing costs for businesses and households, with effects similar to direct interest rate hikes by central banks. It is precisely this transmission mechanism that gives the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England the confidence to delay action. Following last week's press conference by Federal Reserve Chair Wash, the U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened to its largest extent in nearly a year—long-end yields rose significantly more than short-end yields. Although the curve flattened somewhat on Monday, the spread remained notably higher than pre-Fed meeting levels. Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB's U.S. economist Elisabet Kopelman noted that this trend "increases the pressure on the Federal Reserve to ultimately meet market expectations." In the UK, the spread between two-year and 30-year government bonds saw its largest single-day move since March on Thursday, initially driven by developments in U.S. markets, then widening further as the Bank of England signaled that interest rate hikes were unlikely in the near term. However, analysts generally point out that relying on market-driven tightening has fundamental limitations. ING's developed markets economist James Smith warned: The risk facing the central bank is that it must act consistently at some point to keep inflation expectations within manageable limits. Some Federal Reserve watchers warn that Wash and his colleagues may once again wait too long this time, at which point more aggressive action could raise borrowing costs and inflict deeper damage on economic growth. Notably, the combination of energy price surges triggered by pandemic lockdowns and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, along with slow central bank responses, ultimately led to uncontrolled inflation, forcing a more aggressive tightening at the end. Central banks collectively hold back, each with its own emphasis on rationale The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank have all chosen to incorporate market forces into their policy considerations in response to this round of energy shocks, though each has placed different emphases. Wash attributed the tightening of financial conditions to the Fed's proactive reduction in forward guidance, emphasizing that markets have taken on some policy functions. Bailey of the Bank of England directly pointed to the Middle East war and the upward shift in the yield curve as factors suppressing inflation. Although the European Central Bank has already raised interest rates and markets expect another move in September, President Lagarde acknowledged at her press conference on July 23 that "more volatile and risk-averse financial markets could dampen demand and thereby reduce inflation." Evelyne Gomez-Lietchi, multi-asset strategist at Mizuho International Plc., believes central banks' cautious approach is justified. "Central banks cannot 'solve' energy price shocks through interest rate hikes," she said. "It is reasonable to remain cautious on actual rate increases." Recent data has provided some support for the central bank's wait-and-see stance. The U.S. consumer price index fell month-on-month in June for the first time in six years. However, annual figures still indicate high inflation—overall CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year, while core CPI increased 2.6% year-on-year. Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said, Wash is content with maintaining stable policy rates, as the market is shouldering much of the burden. However, the counterargument is that market-driven tightening can only last for a limited time and will eventually require policy support. RBC Capital Markets European macro strategist George Moran was more direct: The degree of market tightening has been very limited compared to past interest rate hiking cycles. If the impact spreads more broadly to inflation, the central bank cannot rely solely on this. Unlike Western central banks that are focusing on bond markets, the Bank of Japan is more concerned with exchange rate movements—weak yen has become an additional driver of inflation in Japan. The Bank of Japan held its benchmark interest rate at 1% on Friday, but Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled a hawkish stance in the post-meeting press conference, stating that action would be prepared if price pressures spread, keeping the possibility of a September rate hike open. Meanwhile, Japan's Ministry of Finance intervened in the foreign exchange market to support the weakening yen. Risk Warning and Disclaimer Markets involve risks; invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at the user's own risk.

SpaceX is about to release its first quarterly earnings report since going public, marking a crucial test for the market. SpaceX will release its second-quarter earnings after market close on Wednesday, August 4, Eastern Time. As of Monday's opening, its stock has declined for four consecutive weeks, dropping about 20% from its $135 IPO price and falling 46% from its historical high of $201.80 at the close on June 16. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Colin Canfield noted in a preview report that "initial quarterly earnings expectations may be subject to extreme bias," suggesting that the market has little clarity on the actual performance trajectory. Meanwhile, the pressure from share unlocking looms over the stock price. Approximately 912 million shares will be allowed to circulate on August 6, with another roughly 319 million shares expected to be released within about a week afterward. This means that potential selling pressure from early investors cannot be ignored, and market attention will focus on how the stock reacts on Thursday and Friday—a strong earnings report could be the only catalyst to break the downward trend. AI business revenue has enormous potential but also the highest level of uncertainty. SpaceX's financial report is divided into three business segments: Space, Connectivity, and Artificial Intelligence (AI), with the AI segment being the biggest mystery of this quarter. The core asset of the AI business is xAI—merged with SpaceX in February this year. xAI currently operates two onshore data centers: Colossus I in Tennessee and Colossus II in Mississippi. In the first quarter, the AI business generated $818 million in revenue but recorded a $2.5 billion operating loss during the same period, with capital expenditures reaching $7.7 billion. Entering the second quarter, a key variable has emerged in revenue. SpaceX has signed AI data center leasing agreements with Anthropic and Google, with the agreement with Anthropic reaching up to $1.25 billion per month, gradually ramping up between May and June; the Google deal has not yet commenced. This means that actual AI-related revenues this quarter carry significant flexibility, and both profit margins and the pace of new capital expenditures remain difficult to predict. Investors are most eager for guidance on the company's outlook for its AI business in the second half of this year and by 2027, as well as the timeline for advancing its plan to launch low-cost AI computing satellites into orbit using Starship. Starlink: User growth is the key metric Starlink, SpaceX's most robust profit engine, reached 10.3 million subscribers by the end of the first quarter—more than doubling from 5 million a year earlier. The company generated $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit during the quarter. In this quarter's earnings report, user growth data will be the market's main focus. Colin Canfield expects the company to disclose average revenue per user (ARPU) metrics, as well as backlogs in enterprise and government contracts—data that will help investors assess the depth of Starlink's commercialization and its future growth potential. Space Business: Starship Progress Draws Attention The Space segment carries SpaceX's core technology narrative. In the first quarter, it generated $4.1 billion in revenue, incurred an operating loss of $657 million, and had $1.1 billion in capital expenditures for new facilities and equipment. In the second quarter, Falcon 9 completed approximately 36 launches, most of which supported the company's own Starlink constellation deployment—launches not included in the Space segment's revenue. Starship's progress is also drawing significant attention. In July, Starship completed its 13th flight test, and investors will be seeking updates on the timeline for the 14th test, as well as the company's ongoing investment scale in this rocket—Starship being a key launch vehicle for future commercial payload missions and AI satellite deployments. Performance Outlook and Market Prospects Wall Street currently expects SpaceX to report total revenue of approximately $6.9 billion in the second quarter, with EBITDA around $2.1 billion; full-year revenue is forecast at $39 billion, and EBITDA at $17.3 billion. Colin Canfield remains relatively optimistic about the quarter, anticipating results above expectations along with positive guidance. However, the reference value of these forecasts is questionable. As this is SpaceX's first quarterly report since its IPO, analysts lack historical data for calibration, making significant deviations from actual figures possible. Stock price movements remain highly uncertain. Key factors that could influence the market's post-earnings reaction include supply pressure from newly unlocked shares, investor concerns about Musk's divided attention, and ongoing debate over valuation—currently around 35 times estimated 2026 revenue for a market cap of approximately $1.4 trillion. For investors, this weekend may prove extremely turbulent. Risk Warning and Disclaimer Markets involve risks; invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at the user's own risk.

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its July FOMC meeting, but Chairman Wash's remarks during the press conference sparked widespread market controversy. He claimed that as forward guidance fades, markets have learned to "play the game rather than watch the referee," and that financial conditions are tightening spontaneously through market forces. However, critics argue this narrative is fundamentally flawed—the Fed has never been the referee, but one of the most important players on the field, and a change in communication strategy cannot alter that reality. Wash's central argument: Let the market do the Fed's job He further stated that market participants are learning to "play the game rather than watch the referee," which he sees as progress, noting that "central banks don't always need to be the center of attention." Why the "Judgment Theory" Falls Apart Yet this is far from reality. The Federal Reserve sets short-term interest rates, and any market participant betting on the direction of these rates must inevitably form a judgment about the Fed's next move. This logic remains unchanged regardless of the length of the Fed's press release or whether the chair's responses are substantive. Potential risks of "market substitution for interest rate hikes" Analysts at Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and Nomura all believe the Federal Reserve is currently allowing bond markets to substitute for official rate hikes, but this strategy could also push up long-term yields and risk unanchoring inflation expectations, leading to greater policy volatility in the future. While Wash's communication strategy itself may not be fundamentally flawed, the problem lies in how he describes it, which creates additional confusion. Positioning the Federal Reserve as a "referee" rather than a "player" is a misleading portrayal of how markets actually function, increasing uncertainty for market participants when interpreting policy signals. Risk Warning and Disclaimer

At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 30, the Federal Reserve will release its latest interest rate decision. This meeting will not include a dot plot or updated economic projections, and the federal funds rate target range is expected to remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. According to a Reuters poll, all 104 surveyed forecasters expect no change in rates. However, money markets still assign about a 32% probability of a rate hike this week and anticipate approximately 42 basis points of tightening by year-end, making tonight's meeting one of the most uncertain in recent years. Jonathan Pingle, UBS's chief U.S. economist, said his uncertainty ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve decision is at its highest level in 20 years—the last time he felt similarly was when Bernanke first took over as Fed chair. "Wash will dominate policy direction in the coming meetings, and we know almost nothing about how he views monetary policy." The market consensus is to pause, but pricing remains unsettled. However, the same survey revealed that 66% of respondents believe the likelihood of a rate hike this year is "high," a marked shift from the prevailing view in June, which was "low." Market pricing also indicates investors are pricing in tail risks of tightening. Traders currently assign about a 30% probability to a hike this week, fully factor in a 25-basis-point increase by September, and have priced in nearly 50 basis points of tightening by March next year. Data support is pending, but inflation risks remain. The labor market has also given the Federal Reserve more time to observe. In June, nonfarm payrolls came in weaker than expected, with the previous figure revised down, resulting in a two-month net revision of 74,000 job losses, compared to the prior increase of 93,000. Although the unemployment rate declined slightly, data suggest this may have been primarily due to a drop in the overall labor force participation rate. The issue is that underlying inflation remains significantly above target. Morgan Stanley points out that upside risks include persistently high oil prices, a more hawkish Federal Reserve reaction function, and AI-driven investment pushing up the neutral rate. Goldman Sachs also believes that the combined impact of tariffs, wars, and statistical errors related to AI on monthly inflation may weaken in the future, but uncertainty remains high; should inflation improvement stall, discussions within the Fed about further rate hikes could reignite. The last FOMC meeting chaired by Waller was also his first. At that time, the statement was significantly shortened, removed forward guidance language, and reinforced the committee's commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2% target. This means that even minor wording changes this time will be amplified by the market. The press conference might be more important. Wash is expected to be asked about the impact of the Middle East conflict on inflation, the newly announced chair's working group, and whether the latest data could bring forward the policy timeline. Goldman Sachs expects Wash will not provide a clear policy signal, likely emphasizing that all options remain open and future decisions will depend on data. Disagreements widen, and a suspension may come with objections—watch for dissenting votes. Both Waller and Cook indicated that they might consider tightening policy if the disinflation process stalls. 2026 voting members Logan and Hammack delivered more hawkish remarks. Logan argued that policy rates should be somewhat higher to better balance outlooks and risks, and emphasized that some restrictive policy remains necessary to help inflation return to target. Hammack directly stated that the Fed may need to consider raising interest rates. Bank of America analyst Mark Cabana expects the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday, but anticipates potential opposition from regional Fed chairmen such as Lorie Logan and Beth Hammack. He also noted that if markets do not rule out the risk of a rate hike, strategists won't either. While the mainstream view remains for a pause, some institutions are clearly betting on an unexpected rate hike. Citadel Securities stands out as a notable exception, with its macro strategy head Frank Flight revising his base case this week to a 25-basis-point increase. He believes this would strengthen Powell's credibility in fighting inflation and "clearly end the era of forward guidance." Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP, said the Federal Reserve has insufficient reason not to raise interest rates. Veteran bond market expert Harley Bassman even argued that the Fed should hike rates by 50 basis points in one move to strengthen its credibility on inflation control. Asset Response: Rate hikes pose the biggest impact, and even a hawkish pause is not easy If the Fed unexpectedly raises interest rates by 25 basis points, JPMorgan expects the S&P 500 to decline by 1.5%–2%, with the Nasdaq 100 potentially falling even more. A 50-basis-point hike could push the S&P 500 down 2%–4%. In contrast, a "dovish pause"—maintaining rates unchanged and signaling a softer tone—could lift the S&P 500 by 0.50%–1%. In options markets, the implied volatility for July 29 expiries reflects about 0.8% for the S&P 500, lower than the recent 1.1% pricing following CPI data. The focus in the interest rate market is on the front end. Goldman Sachs' rates trading desk believes the market may misinterpret the "lack of forward guidance" as intentional ambiguity. The desk leans toward the view that if the Federal Reserve Board does not support a rate hike, the hawkish voting members lack sufficient numbers to push through action this week. However, if a pause occurs in July, Wash could still deliver a hawkish pause and set the stage for a rate increase in September. This means that tonight's key issue is not just whether interest rates change, but how Powell explains "no change" or "a change." Given that markets have already priced in the risk of a rate hike and economists are nearly unanimous in expecting a pause, whichever path the Fed takes could send significant ripples through the market. Markets involve risks; invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at the user's own risk.

Longxing Technology, a leading domestic DRAM memory chip manufacturer, officially listed on the STAR Market. On its first trading day, the stock closed at 49 yuan per share, up 465.82% from its issue price, giving it a total market value of 3.28 trillion yuan—making it the most valuable company in the A-share market. Behind the soaring stock price, 69 insurance institutions have been quietly positioned for a long time—from early private equity financing to IPO strategic allocations and offline subscription. Based on the morning closing price of 54.65 yuan per share, their combined unrealized gains exceed 85 billion yuan. Among them, six early-entry institutions, having invested 2.385 billion yuan at low cost, have already achieved profits exceeding 127.9 billion yuan. From an industry perspective, the transformation is irreversible. In the long term, insurance funds' shift from traditional "fixed income + high dividend" strategies to investing in hard technology sectors has become inevitable, and a new path is now widely recognized across the industry. Changxin Technology delivered strong performances on both its first and second trading days after listing. On July 27, Changxin Technology (688825) officially listed on the stock exchange as the largest IPO in the history of the STAR Market. On its first trading day, the issue price was 8.66 yuan per share, with an opening price of 49.5 yuan and a closing price of 49 yuan per share, representing a surge of 465.82% from the issue price. Its market capitalization reached 3.28 trillion yuan, ranking it at the top of the A-share market by total value. On July 28, Changxin Technology maintained its strong performance, closing at 48.20 yuan per share in the morning session, with its total market value remaining above 3 trillion yuan, continuing to rank first in the market by valuation. Two consecutive days of strong performance mean that Changxin Technology has firmly secured the top spot in market valuation, and its long-term impact on the A-share market may still be unfolding. Become a "blessing myth" Longxing Technology's strong performance over two consecutive days has also brought substantial profits to its primary market investors. An ordinary investor who subscribed to one lottery unit earned over 20,000 yuan in just two trading days with a cost of less than 5,000 yuan. Changxin Technology had 9.4288 million valid online subscription accounts, with a winning rate of 0.47%, meaning approximately hundreds of thousands of investors gained wealth as a result. Insurance funds earn substantial returns from new share allocations However, it was institutions—especially insurance funds—that truly made substantial profits from Longxing Technology. From early private equity financing to pre-IPO participation, and then to offline and online subscription during the IPO, insurance funds have covered the entire investment cycle of Changxin Technology—from incubation to listing. According to relevant analysis, a total of 69 insurance institutions currently hold shares in Changxin Technology. Based on the closing price of 54.65 yuan on the morning of the first trading day, their combined unrealized gains exceed 85 billion yuan. Among them, during the earliest private financing stage, six insurance funds—Harmony Health, China Life Investment, PICC Capital, Sunshine Life, China Post Life, and PICC Sci-Tech—had already appeared on the shareholder list. These six insurers collectively contributed 2.385 billion yuan in paid-in capital at the time when Changxin Technology was experiencing its deepest losses, holding a combined 3.96% stake prior to the IPO. Based on the closing price of 54.65 yuan per share on Monday morning, the total market value held by the six companies exceeded 130.3 billion yuan, with floating profits surpassing 127.9 billion yuan. Entering the IPO issuance phase, PICC Property & Casualty, China Life Insurance, China Post Life Insurance, and Taikang Life Insurance each received approximately 11.5473 million shares, with an initial investment of about 100 million yuan per company. By the end of the first trading day, this total 400 million yuan investment had appreciated to around 2.528 billion yuan, resulting in a combined unrealized gain exceeding 2.128 billion yuan for the four companies. According to the report, in the offline offering phase, six pension insurance companies, 19 insurance asset management companies, and seven life insurance companies participated in the offline subscription, collectively receiving allocations worth approximately 5.665 billion yuan, with a floating profit of about 30.083 billion yuan based on the midday price. From decisively entering at the point of maximum loss to fully participating throughout the IPO phase, insurance funds have completed a full-cycle investment in the case of Changxin, highlighting the profitability of long-term and intelligent capital. In the long term, insurance funds are continuously increasing their allocation to the technology sector. Changxin Technology is one example on the list of insurance funds investing in hard technology sectors, but clearly not the only one. By the end of May 2026, the total assets of the insurance industry reached 43.23 trillion yuan. More than 10 insurance companies have participated in establishing equity investment funds during the year, with a focus on AI, semiconductors, and integrated circuits. On July 10, just two weeks before Changxin's listing, China Life Insurance announced the establishment of Tianjin Shenghe Xincheng Equity Investment Fund with a scale of 5 billion yuan and an eight-year term. China Life itself committed 4.999 billion yuan, focusing investments on semiconductor process support sectors. This marks China Life's first dedicated fund exclusively targeting the semiconductor industry. On July 20, five listed insurance companies—China Taiping, Ping An of China, New China Insurance, PICC, and China Life—jointly issued statements, clearly expressing their commitment to increasing investment in the hard technology sector. This trend is driven by both market dynamics and policy incentives. From the perspective of insurers' own asset allocation needs, returns from traditional fixed-income investments fail to cover liability costs, making interest margin losses a looming threat to the industry. Meanwhile, regulatory adjustments have created more room, raising the investment cap for equity assets in certain solvency tiers from 30% to 50%, while lowering the risk factor for holdings in the STAR Market, further encouraging insurers to deepen their participation in the equity market. Insurance funds' successful investment in Changxin Technology verifies the compatibility between the long-term nature of insurance capital and the growth cycle of hard-tech enterprises. This is not the starting point, nor will it be the endpoint. Risk Warning and Disclaimer Markets involve risks; investments should be made with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor has it taken into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions presented herein are suitable for their particular circumstances. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at the user's own risk.

The renewed military conflict between the U.S. and Iran in July caught Wall Street off guard, briefly pushing international oil prices above $100 per barrel and triggering another massive sell-off in the $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has risen by over 30 basis points since late June, reaching around 4.678%, nearing its highest level in nearly a decade. Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury yield—the segment most sensitive to monetary policy—climbed to approximately 4.328%, surpassing the Federal Reserve's current interest rate cap of 3.75%, reflecting strong market expectations for further rate hikes. "This shows how concerned the market is about inflation, and how worried it is about whether the Fed can stay consistent in its words and actions," said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at TD Securities, referring to Wash's series of public statements on bringing inflation back to the 2% target. The U.S.-Iran conflict was the direct catalyst for the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Soaring oil prices intensified market concerns over a resurgence of inflation, prompting traders to heavily sell U.S. government bonds. According to GasBuddy data, retail prices for regular gasoline and diesel in the United States have recently returned above $4 and $5.20 per gallon, respectively. David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research & Associates, wrote in a report last Friday: "We did not anticipate this latest chapter in the U.S.-Iran conflict, which is a complicating factor for any duration asset at present." He also noted that the continued expansion of technology-related corporate bond issuance is weighing on the U.S. Treasury market. Rosenberg said he has adjusted his portfolio, shifting from long positions in 30-year U.S. Treasuries—previously underperforming—to shorter-duration U.S. government bonds. The Debate Over Interest Rate Hikes: The Cost and Timing Dilemma of Policy Actions Inflation erodes the real value of fixed-income assets, while interest rate hikes further depress bond prices and weigh on other financial assets such as equities. Meanwhile, Barclays analysts expect the U.S. fiscal deficit to reach approximately $2 trillion in 2026, with continued large-scale issuance of U.S. Treasuries serving as a key means to bridge the gap—indicating that supply pressures in the bond market are unlikely to ease in the near term. Stock market suffers another sharp decline, with tech stocks leading the losses Higher interest rates often dampen corporate and consumer spending, thereby slowing economic growth and eroding corporate profit expectations. Christopher from Wells Fargo suggests investors might consider waiting for the current rotation in tech stocks to subside, as "a better entry point may emerge" at that time, and notes that "keeping some cash reserves might not be a bad idea." Markets involve risks; invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor has it taken into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at the user's own risk.

Hong Kong's RMB clearing volume rose to 53.2 trillion yuan (approximately 7.9 trillion USD) in June, surpassing the settlement volumes of both the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar for the first time and setting a new historical record. Meanwhile, offshore RMB deposits in Hong Kong reached a record high of 1.13 trillion yuan by the end of May, while bond issuance surged 33% year-on-year within the year. Settlement volume hits record high, RMB settlement scale surpasses HKD and USD Karen Ng, Head of China Openness and RMB Internationalization at Standard Chartered Bank, said, "We are entering a new phase of accelerated RMB internationalization," adding that the deepening of offshore market liquidity pools is "truly driving the internationalization of the RMB." Bond issuance expands in tandem with the derivatives market, and the liquidity ecosystem is becoming increasingly mature. The expansion of bond issuance has simultaneously driven up hedging demand. In October 2025, the notional value of outstanding offshore RMB interest rate derivatives in Hong Kong surpassed that of USD derivatives for the first time, while the volume of HKD derivatives remained stable. Policies continue to strengthen, with Hong Kong expanding financing tools to support market development. Earlier this month, Hong Kong doubled the quota for RMB business facilitation to 500 billion yuan, as over 90% of the previous quota had already been allocated. At the same time, the Southbound Bond Connect quota, which allows mainland institutional investors to purchase offshore bonds through Hong Kong, was also raised to 800 billion yuan. Interest rate differentials drive lending demand, with the appeal of RMB financing continuing to stand out. Cheuk Wong, Head of Hong Kong Market and Securities Services at HSBC Holdings, said that offshore RMB borrowing is becoming increasingly popular in the market due to China's lower interest rates compared to other major currencies. Risk Warning and Disclaimer

Samsung Electronics is in talks to invest hundreds of millions of euros in French AI startup Mistral, a move that would further solidify the market position of Europe's most valuable AI company and reflect the intense global competition among tech investors for AI computing resources. According to the Financial Times on the 22nd, citing informed sources, this investment is part of a larger funding round for Mistral, which would value the company at approximately 20 billion euros upon completion. Samsung previously invested in Mistral through its venture capital arm, and this latest round could see an investment of up to 1 billion euros. Meanwhile, Scaleup Europe Fund, owned by Swedish investment firm EQT, is also in talks with Mistral regarding participation in the current financing round. Negotiations are ongoing, and final terms have not yet been agreed upon. Samsung, Mistral, and EQT have all declined to comment. The backdrop to this funding round's negotiations is the Trump administration's restriction last month on foreign access to Anthropic's latest models, which has sparked strong demand among European and Asian governments and businesses for "sovereign AI" capabilities. Mistral is actively seizing this market opportunity with its "open" AI models, which offer customers the freedom to customize and control. Valuation nearly doubles in less than a year, with funding potentially exceeding 5 billion euros This funding round comes less than a year after Mistral's previous valuation was significantly increased. Reports indicate that Mistral is now seeking to raise tens of billions of euros, with the total financing expected to exceed 50 billion euros. In contrast, less than a year ago, a deal led by Dutch chip equipment giant ASML valued Mistral at 12 billion euros. In September last year, Mistral secured 1.7 billion euros in funding, most of which came from ASML—the company is leveraging Mistral's AI models to boost the production efficiency of its precision lithography equipment. Earlier this year, Mistral also completed an $830 million initial debt financing round to build data centers powered by NVIDIA chips across Europe. EQT's Scaleup Europe Fund, supported by Brussels and managed by EQT, brings together private investors such as Novo Holdings and Santander Bank, focusing on supporting high-potential European companies in competitive sectors like AI. Chip strategy layout drives the collaboration between both parties Samsung's engagement with Mistral reflects the current chip supply bottleneck facing the AI industry. As demand for computing power in AI model training and inference continues to rise, semiconductor supply has significantly lagged behind demand growth, prompting AI developers to actively seek deep collaborations with chip suppliers. According to South Korean media reports in April this year, Samsung and Mistral had previously discussed collaboration in the field of AI storage chips. As the world's largest memory chip manufacturer, Samsung has seen a significant increase in profits over the past year, driven by rising chip prices fueled by demand for AI. The same logic is playing out among other players in the industry. Last month, U.S. memory chip manufacturer Micron invested in Anthropic and signed a comprehensive agreement covering long-term storage supply. Microsoft expands collaboration, with revenue sources becoming more stable This week, Mistral also announced an expanded partnership with Microsoft. As one of Mistral's earliest investors, Microsoft has committed to investing "billions of dollars" in Mistral's computing infrastructure, and Mistral's latest models will be made available through Microsoft's Azure cloud computing platform. This deal will provide Mistral with a stable source of revenue, enabling it to use this as a credit foundation for financing and thereby accelerate the expansion of its computing power—including the deployment of thousands of NVIDIA's latest Vera Rubin chips. Mistral, founded just three years ago, has become Europe's most valuable AI startup. Its CEO, Arthur Mensch, told the Financial Times in February that Mistral's annual recurring revenue is expected to surpass $1 billion by year-end, driven by rapid expansion among enterprise customers. Risk Warning and Disclaimer Markets involve risks; invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor has it taken into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at the user's own risk.

Rising global temperatures are pushing a risk once considered an extreme scenario into the mainstream of investment considerations. JPMorgan has likened the risk of climate tipping points to a "black swan," warning that if triggered, the consequences would be severe and irreversible. Institutional investors are accelerating efforts to incorporate this risk into portfolio analysis, while regulators are beginning to follow suit. According to Bloomberg on Monday, Sarah Kapnick, global head of climate consulting at JPMorgan and former chief scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said that after illiquid physical assets, debt markets would be the first asset class to face pressure. She warned that if investors wait too long to act, "they may have little time left to respond." Hetal Patel, head of sustainable investment research at Standard Life, said the company plans to launch the "initial build" of climate tipping point risk management next year and will conduct scenario testing on its £317 billion (approximately $425 billion) portfolio to assess potential impacts across various asset classes. He also stated that investors who fail to take such risks seriously by mid-2028 will be "truly out of step with mainstream thinking." Climate Tipping Points: From Tail Risks to Mainstream Concerns Climate tipping points are critical thresholds within Earth's interconnected natural systems—including the atmosphere, land, oceans, and glaciers. Once crossed, they may trigger sudden, dangerous, and irreversible cascading impacts. Scientists have identified more than twelve such tipping points, including mass coral reef die-offs, Amazon rainforest savannization, and irreversible melting of the Greenland ice sheet. JPMorgan uses the "black swan" analogy to emphasize that although such events are currently seen as tail risks, once any single tipping point is crossed, the impact will be "extremely severe." Antoine Poincaré, director of the Apave Climate Academy, defines climate tipping points directly as "the most frightening aspect of climate change." This risk is accelerating from academic discussion into investment practice. In 2024, global temperatures briefly exceeded the 1.5°C warming threshold for the first time, while projected temperature trajectories this century are expected to approach double that level—what scientists describe as "catastrophic." In October of this year, researchers at the University of Exeter announced that the world has reached its first climate tipping point: the "massive die-off" of warm-water coral reefs, signaling a "new reality" for humanity. Bond markets and mortgage portfolios face the first wave of impact At the asset class level, Sarah Kapnick's analysis shows that debt markets will be the first to face repricing pressures after illiquid physical assets. She recommends that investors regularly update their tail-risk analyses to incorporate the latest scientific developments. For banks, this task is quite challenging due to the constraints of their operational time frames, but Kapnick specifically pointed out that mortgage portfolios represent an exposure worth watching over longer durations. She also emphasized that while this year's heatwave has not yet reached the tipping point itself, it signals a "hotter baseline." "As changes accelerate, the speed at which systems are pushed toward thresholds may exceed the adaptive capacity of society and markets." Institutional investors are accelerating their strategic positioning to address the framework. Faced with this risk, Allianz Global Investors (AllianzGI), which manages over 600 billion euros (approximately 685 billion U.S. dollars) in assets, is actively exploring response strategies. Mark Wade, Head of Sustainable Research and Management at AllianzGI, said closely monitoring developments in the insurance industry is a key reference for determining when asset prices begin to react. "What will truly draw mainstream attention is the insurability crisis and financial tipping point resulting from crossing climate and biodiversity thresholds," he said. Tim Lenton, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter, pointed out that investors' risk assessment logic has shifted in recent years. "Full realization of risks takes time, but if such change is already underway and irreversible, you might choose to reprice now, bringing the future into the present." Regulators follow up, historical data becomes invalid At the regulatory level, financial regulators have begun incorporating climate tipping points into their oversight frameworks. Last year, the UK Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) required banks and insurers to consider nonlinear and irreversible climate risks, explicitly stating that historical data is no longer a reliable basis for assessing future risks. Kapnick stated that the physical impacts of climate change "are already manifesting," and investors are gradually recognizing that "nonlinear, step-change events—along with policy-driven disclosure—could force asset repricing at a pace far exceeding what traditional models assume." For institutional investors like Standard Life with a long-term investment horizon, Hetal Patel says the central challenge is now clear: how to protect asset values from erosion by climate tipping point risks. Risk Warning and Disclaimer Markets involve risks; invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor has it taken into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions presented herein are suitable for their particular circumstances. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at the user's own risk.