The quiet local brokerage license in Hong Kong suddenly became hot again. On the evening of April 25th, Bright Smart Securities Finance (code: 01428.HK, hereinafter referred to as Bright Smart Securities), a local listed company in Hong Kong, and Wealth Ines and Prosperity Holding Limited, a subsidiary of Ant Holdings, jointly announced that the two parties had reached a share purchase agreement for the latter to acquire 50.55% of the shares of the former. At the same time, the latter made a cash offer to other shareholders in Bright Smart Securities, and the purchase price was HK$ 3.28 per share, which was 7.54% higher than the latest price before the suspension of trading in Bright Smart Securities on April 23rd. Bright Smart Securities was founded by Ye Maolin, a former "nightclub tycoon" and financial genius in Hong Kong. It is a leading brokerage financial institution in Hong Kong with over 60 billion customer assets. Once the acquisition is completed, Bright Smart Securities will become a holding subsidiary of Ant. The possible "chemical reaction" in the future after Bright Smart Securities's integration into the big system and strategy of ants has attracted people's attention. Bright Smart Securities "changed hands" As a direct result of the above-mentioned share purchase agreement, Bright Smart Securities changed hands. Before this merger, Bright Smart Securities was absolutely controlled by Ye Maolin and his new Changming. After the breakthrough, Ye Maolin held a total of 50.55% of Yaocai's shares (data released by the Stock Exchange). After this transaction, there is a high probability that all the shares held by Ye Maolin will be held by ants. The company indirectly controlled by Ant became the absolute majority shareholder of Bright Smart Securities. At the same time, according to the relevant acquisition laws and regulations, Ant's companies triggered the obligation to make a tender offer for all shareholders, which led to the announcement of 3.28 Hong Kong dollars per share to make a tender offer to all shareholders. Why Bright Smart Securities? Bright Smart Securities acquired by Ant was founded by Ye Maolin in 1995, and the company was listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2010. Its core business includes securities brokerage, margin financing, commodity and futures brokerage and spot financial transactions. As a "leader" among local securities firms in Hong Kong, Bright Smart Securities holds the No.1, No.2, No.4, No.5, No.6 and No.9 licenses of the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission (commonly referred to as "full-service licenses"), and its business covers securities trading, futures contract consultation, asset management and other fields. For the acquirer, it will take at least 2-3 years to set up a new institution and collect these licenses, and the acquisition will greatly reduce the time cost. In addition, Ye Maolin, the boss of Bright Smart Securities, is quite flexible in thinking, and Yaocai is also famous for his flexible operation and excellent financial technology in the Hong Kong market. In the history, the company took the lead in reducing the commission rate, and took the lead in opening night market service and seven-day service. In addition, by the end of last year, the total number of clients of the company was close to 580,000, and the client assets were close to 60.5 billion yuan, making it one of the best local brokers in Hong Kong. For ants, Yao Cai is indeed one of the better choices if they want to buy a local financial license in Hong Kong. According to the research report of soochow securities Sun Ting and Wu Xinshu, the acquisition of Yao by Ant will bring the following benefits: Further complete international expansion: improve the global financial service network by controlling Hong Kong securities firms. Technology Empowers Traditional Finance: Promote digital transformation and strengthen the strategy of "technology+wealth management" with the help of Yaocai's license and customer resources. Pursuing synergy: Ant Wealth cooperates with over 150 asset management institutions, which can form cross-selling with Yaocai's securities business. The challenges are obvious. However, such an acquisition is not without challenges and risks. From the historical case, there are still many challenges and potential risk factors. First, Bright Smart Securities's business tends to stagnate in recent years. In the past four complete financial years, the fluctuation of revenue and net profit has obviously declined (see the figure below). It remains to be seen whether ants can "turn the tide" and pull the company's business out of the "quagmire" after the acquisition. Secondly, Yaocai, as a local brokerage company founded by Ye Maolin, a Hong Kong business wizard, has been deeply branded by his personal and local financial institutions. As the "Big Mac" of domestic financial technology service companies, Ant also has a strong and consistent organization. Whether the two companies can successfully complete the integration after the merger in the future, how much Yao Cai's unique business and team can retain after this round of mergers and acquisitions is also an external point of view. Third, the acquisition of local securities institutions in Hong Kong, and on this basis, the establishment of international business flagship institutions, this capital arrangement in the past decade has been replicated by a number of large content brokers. However, from the actual situation, there are very few excellent operating results. As an independent subsidiary, if the operation business is tightly tied to the parent company, the business development momentum and efficiency are often affected. If the independence is too strong and the incentive target is too high, it will often be exposed to more risky businesses under the promotion of the management team. This lesson has appeared more than once in mainland brokerage institutions. The founder experienced innovation. In this acquisition, Ye Maolin, the creator of Bright Smart Securities, has attracted much attention. He is a "wizard" in Hong Kong's business circles and has a far-reaching influence on this financial institution. According to local reports, when he was young, he was said to have worked in a plastic flower factory in Li Ka-shing. After dropping out of high school, he became a peddler. Since then, he has moved to many industries, speculating in gold, and also turning into a clothing quota, earning the first bucket of gold in his life. In the early 1990s, Ye Maolin saw the limited development prospects of ready-made garments, and set up Bright Smart Securities in 1992 to enter the securities industry. During this period, it experienced a brilliant bull market of Hong Kong stocks in the 1990s, and at the end of the 1990s, it also encountered the financial crisis in Southeast Asia and the avalanche of Hong Kong stocks. In 2003, the relevant departments in Hong Kong lifted the minimum commission limit in the securities industry, and Ye Maolin seized the opportunity to greatly reduce the company's commission from 0.25%, thus breaking out of the New Deal encirclement and eventually becoming the leader of local securities firms. Entering this century, Ye Maolin is getting older, but its business is getting more and more complicated. He once owned a number of well-known "nightclubs" in Hong Kong, and also packaged and listed this night market economy. In recent years, he has also made frequent public voices. Ye Maolin is now in its seventies, and the Hong Kong stock market has also performed generally in recent years. It seems logical for Ye Maolin to "sell" his company and hand it over to a "newcomer" for management. Early stock price change Another detail that can't be missed is that before the official announcement of this merger, Bright Smart Securities's share price showed a very obvious change. On April 23, 2024, Bright Smart Securities rose sharply at the opening, and rose repeatedly in intraday trading (below), and finally applied for suspension temporarily. Just before the suspension, the share price of the stock rose by more than 10% in more than an hour. Moreover, from the K-line of the day, the turnover of the stock was significantly enlarged more than one hour before the suspension of trading that day, even exceeding all the single-day turnover since the beginning of the year. Who "grabbed the order" to buy during this period? Is there any inside information leaked in advance? How to guarantee the information fairness in the whole acquisition process? It is also a detail worthy of attention. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

The tech giant's earnings week under Trump's tariff is coming, and the "tariff victims" finally have to respond positively to the possible impact of this storm. Next week, when technology giants such as Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple and Spotify announce their financial reports one after another, investors will pay close attention to the potential tariff attacks on their supply chains and products imported from overseas. According to the comprehensive analysis, Amazon and Apple may be the two technology giants that have been hit hardest in the tariff storm. Amazon will announce its earnings report after the US stock market closes next Thursday. Not only may its advertising business be hit, but its heavy reliance on Asian suppliers and retailers' market income will also be hit by Trump tariffs. Apple will also announce its earnings report after the US stock market closes next Thursday. Although the company may benefit from consumers' panic buying in advance in the short term, with the full implementation of tariffs, the dual pressures of rising supply chain costs and declining purchasing power of consumers will gradually emerge. Happiness and worry in the eyes of technology giants under the tariff storm The technology giants have smelled the tariff storm. Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet, indirectly mentioned the impact of tariffs in a recent earnings conference call: "We obviously can't be immune to the macro environment. But we don't want to speculate on the potential impact, just note that the change of the minimum exemption will obviously cause slight resistance to our advertising business in 2025, mainly from retailers in the Asia-Pacific region. " Tesla CEO Musk is outspoken: "When the profit margin is still low, tariffs are a severe test for companies." Despite his close relationship with Trump, Musk expressed his support for "free trade and tariff reduction". But more notably, Tesla refused to update the guidelines for the rest of 2025, citing the uncertainty of the impact of trade policies on the automobile and energy supply chain. Intel reported revenue that exceeded expectations, but gave disappointing revenue guidance for the second quarter. David Zinsner, Chief Financial Officer of Intel, disclosed: "We believe that the revenue in the first quarter benefited from customers' purchasing in advance in response to potential tariffs, although it is difficult to quantify the extent." These statements may be a signal for Apple: Many Wall Street analysts predict that iPhone manufacturers may report more than expected revenue due to accelerating demand, but at the cost of fewer mobile phone upgrades in the coming months. William McDermott, CEO of ServiceNow, said: "Yes, CEOs have noticed that the global economy is in a state of mobility. No, they are not stagnant. " ServiceNow not only reported the financial data of the first quarter that exceeded expectations, but also provided guidance on subscription income that was stronger than expected. This may bode well for Microsoft, which will announce its earnings next week, because the latter has a huge software business through Office series applications. Gregory Peters, co-CEO of Netflix, said: "We obviously pay close attention to consumer sentiment and the broader economic trend. However, based on what we have seen in the actual operation of the business at present, there is nothing really noteworthy. " This may indicate that consumers are still willing to spend money on entertainment, which may be good news for subscription-based media platforms such as Spotify. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

After Trump repeatedly "shelled" Powell, the Fed may not escape the loss of independence? On Thursday, April 24th, Nick Timiraos, known as the "New Fed News Agency", issued a document saying that after repeatedly publicly accusing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, Trump's tough stance of intervening in the Fed may weaken investors' confidence in the next Fed chairman, even though he "changed his face" and indicated that he had no intention of firing him. The article further pointed out that the market's concern is that even if Trump spared Powell, the damage has already been done. No matter who the next chairman is, the independence of the Fed will be in doubt, thus weakening the effectiveness of future monetary policy. Why is the independence of the Federal Reserve so important? The article states that since the Fed successfully tamed the "scourge" of high inflation in the 1980s, its independence from the White House has always been regarded as the existence of a "ballast stone". Why? Because of an independent central bank, its interest rate policy is usually considered to be more objective, more professional and thus more effective. Simply put, if the market believes that the Fed's decisions are based on economic data and long-term goals, rather than short-term political considerations, then these decisions will be easier to guide market expectations and stabilize the economy. On the other hand, if the chairman of the Federal Reserve is like a subordinate who listens to the president's instructions at any time, then every interest rate adjustment may be interpreted as a political operation, and the market reaction will become chaotic and unpredictable. The article states that it is precisely in recognition of this point that since President Clinton's time, most successive American presidents have adopted the attitude of "non-intervention" in the specific operations of the Federal Reserve, because they understand that pushing the central bank into a corner may be counterproductive in the end and it will be more difficult to achieve economic goals. Trump triggered market concerns about the "shadow chairman" However, Trump broke this "tacit understanding". Trump publicly attacked Powell again in April 2025, demanding an immediate interest rate cut. Although he later said that he had "no intention" to fire Powell-which may itself be a "catch-up" after a negative reaction in the market-this capricious pressure has caused harm. The article mentioned that the core concern of the market is that this kind of open belittling and pressure will bring Powell's successor an indelible "original sin". The article quoted John Silvia, president of Dynamic Economic Strategy Consulting and former chief economist of the Senate Banking Committee, as saying: "You can't vilify a person like this, and then expect the market to think that your chosen successor will have amazing credibility." David Wilcox, an economist at Bloomberg Economic Research Institute and Peterson Institute for International Economics, also believes that Trump's "threatening posture" towards the Fed cannot be ignored and "will definitely leave a shadow of suspicion for the next chairman". This kind of worry is not groundless. For example, the article pointed out that in February this year, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr handed over the position of vice chairman of banking supervision after Trump administration officials threatened to dismiss him. Subsequently, Trump nominated Michelle Bowman, the Fed governor he appointed in 2018, for this position. According to the article, in the eyes of financial market participants, an "overwhelming possibility" is that in order to get the nomination, the next chairman "probably has given sufficient reasons to make Trump believe that he will be satisfied with the new monetary policy", which is different from the Powell era that made Trump dissatisfied. And if the market generally thinks so, the problem will be big. Timiraos further pointed out that the chairman of the Federal Reserve's speech and judgment on the economic prospects are all aimed at guiding market expectations. Once the market thinks that the "boss" behind the Fed is giving orders, the president's speech may directly affect the interest rate trend, which will undoubtedly overhead the Fed's own decision-making authority. It is not easy for the president to "control" the Fed. However, in order to "reshape" the power of the Fed, Trump is still subject to multiple constraints. First of all, the results of president's intervention in the Federal Reserve in history are often unsatisfactory. The article mentioned that during Nixon's presidency, he privately pressured arthur burns, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, to relax monetary policy before the 1972 general election. Burns did so, and as a result, the American economy was mired in high inflation throughout the 1970s. Secondly, the article also points out that the Fed is not monolithic, and the system itself also has checks and balances. According to the existing regulations, the power of the chairman of the Federal Reserve depends largely on whether he/she can build consensus in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) composed of 12 regional Fed presidents and 6 directors. When the interest rate is decided, the chairman himself has only one vote, and there is no guarantee that every member will vote exactly according to his intention. Jason Furman, a former senior economic adviser to the Obama administration, analyzed that: "There is a limit to what Trump can do to the chairman of the Federal Reserve appointed by himself. The more extreme the person he chooses, the harder it is to get FOMC's approval. " "Unless the president has the right to fire the Fed governors, there is an extremely powerful mechanism of checks and balances built into this system ... The Committee will not submit to a chairman who is completely political." Who will take over as chairman of the baseball team? Where does independence go? The article also mentions the candidates who may succeed Powell in the future, including Kevin Warsh, a former Bush administration adviser and former director of the Federal Reserve, and Kevin Hassett, former director of the White House National Economic Council. Interestingly, Walsh said in a speech in 2010 that he believed that "any attempt to improperly influence the Fed's policies will be strongly countered by Fed officials and market participants" and that "the only prestige that a central bank governor should pursue only exists in history books." So, how will the next chairman of the Federal Reserve respond to this situation? Can they resist the pressure and maintain the independence of the central bank? The article pointed out that Waller, the current governor of the Federal Reserve, stressed in an interview that the key lies in the next chairman. "The key is whether the next chairman will inherit the tradition of the Fed's independence and formulate policies in a non-political way ... no matter who the next chairman is." Waller also said that Trump's criticism will not affect how officials work: "If you don't like being criticized, don't take the job." Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

Overnight, the US "stock and debt exchange" rebounded in an all-round way, and the risk sentiment obviously picked up. The three major US stock indexes closed up more than 1%, the US dollar index rose nearly 100, and the yield of 10-year US bonds fell in intraday trading. Behind this sudden market carnival, the two major concerns in the market have turned for the better in the past few weeks. Trump softened his stance on tariff policy and changed his comments on Powell. According to CCTV News on Wednesday, Trump said on the 22nd local time that he would "substantially reduce" the high tariffs on China. According to the Guardian, Trump's remarks were a response to the earlier remarks made by US Treasury Secretary Bertrand on the 22nd. Besant said that high tariffs are unsustainable. On Tuesday, Trump also "changed his mouth", saying that he did not intend to fire Powell, and now is an excellent time to cut interest rates. Behind Trump's "recognition", he faces multiple pressures such as financial market turmoil, dissuasion by business leaders and frequent warning signals of economic data. Business leaders dissuaded, business confidence collapsed. According to the media quoted people familiar with the matter on Thursday, Trump gave up his tough tariff remarks the day after meeting with Wal-Mart, The Home Depot and Target executives. These executives said that import taxes may disrupt the supply chain and push up commodity prices. One of the people familiar with the matter said that Trump seemed to resonate with the warning that store shelves might be empty in a few weeks. In addition, when asked who the president consulted on tariff and trade policies, Besant said that Trump "constantly solicited the opinions of business leaders" and mentioned the visits of major retailers, and revealed that "the three major German automobile companies also visited on Friday". What is worth mentioning is the reaction of the business community. The pessimism of American CEO is comparable to that during the financial crisis, and almost every company is lowering its forecast. Another data shows that 27% of S&P 500 companies have lowered their 2025 performance expectations, and only 9% have raised their expectations. The collective action of business leaders shows that the business community is actively lobbying and influencing the policy direction. However, it is well known that Trump can easily change his mind and his attitude may change again. Data warning signals are frequent: the risk of hard landing is increasing and inflation expectations are rising significantly. Affected by the uncertainty brought by Trump's tariff policy, Americans' economic outlook has deteriorated, and survey data shows that inflation expectations will soar in the future. Many analysts are also pessimistic about the US economic prospects. According to the institute for supply management (ISM), manufacturing activity in the United States shrank last month. In April, the Richmond Fed's manufacturing activity survey showed that the overall business situation plummeted to -30, and the Philadelphia Fed's non-manufacturing survey index plummeted to -42.7 in April. According to data from the new york Federal Reserve, new york's manufacturing activity shrank for the second consecutive month in April. The survey data shows that inflation expectations will soar in the future. Powell previously said that the announced tariff increase exceeded expectations, and these tariffs may at least lead to a temporary increase in inflation. He and other Fed officials have indicated that they are willing to keep interest rates unchanged and wait for the economic impact of tariffs to become clear. Wall Street analysts have quickly adjusted their economic forecasts, and major investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase have lowered their GDP growth expectations and raised their inflation expectations. The consensus view is that the implementation of radical tariff policy will reduce the economic growth rate of the United States by at least 0.3-0.5 percentage points, while increasing the core inflation rate by 0.4-0.6 percentage points. How does the market predict the policy direction: pay attention to these key indicators For investors, the key to predicting the policy direction is to pay attention to several core indicators. The latest research by Goldman Sachs found that initial unemployment application, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, ISM service index and unemployment rate are the best indicators for early warning of economic slowdown. These indicators usually signal only one month after the recession begins, while hard data such as GDP will take four months to show obvious weakness. The performance of these indicators is better than other data, because they are published frequently, with small correction range, and can be released earlier. Initial unemployment applications are released every Thursday, and unemployment data will be released next week. Traders should also pay close attention to Trump's meeting arrangements with business leaders. Past data show that subtle changes in policy tone usually occur after such meetings. All these may provide key clues for the future policy direction. A key question in the market is: Is this a real policy shift or just a short-term tactical adjustment? Whatever the answer, it is clear that investors need to be prepared for 2025, which is more volatile than expected. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

When will the tug-of-war between Trump and the Federal Reserve push the United States into a recession trap? According to the latest research of Goldman Sachs, by analyzing the real-time data performance of 45 economic indicators, it is found that some indicators reflect the changes of economic conditions earlier and more accurately than others during the slowdown of economic growth. The results show that initial unemployment application, Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index, ISM service index and unexpectedly unemployment rate are the most timely indicators. The performance of these indicators is better than other data, because they are published frequently, with small correction range, and can be released earlier. Initial unemployment applications are released every Thursday, and unemployment data will be released next week. In the study, Goldman Sachs used a daily data set containing the latest data of 45 economic indicators to evaluate their real-time accuracy through their ability to predict economic slowdown. The results show that business surveys and labor market data provide the most timely information at the turning point of the economy. In the past, in economic recessions with clear catalysts, such as the oil shock in 1973, Volcker's interest rate increase in 1979-1980, the soaring oil price after Kuwait's invasion in 1990 and the collapse of the Internet bubble in 2001, it usually took about four months for hard economic data (such as real GDP) to show clear signs of weakening in real-time data, while the expected part of business surveys usually began to decline about one month after the shock. The survey data has issued an alarm, but should the market believe it? Goldman Sachs pointed out that the expected part of the current business survey has dropped significantly, and some even fell to the lowest level except the recession. However, in view of the fact that soft data has been sending out pessimistic signals in the past few years but failed to accurately predict economic performance, this raises an important question: should the market believe the signals of survey data now? The research team believes that the current survey data may be more reliable than in the past for two reasons: First of all, the recent deterioration is mainly driven by the actual decline of more respondents' expected activities, not just the increase of respondents whose expected activities remain unchanged; Secondly, some biased factors (such as the normalization of the re-opening pace of the epidemic, the unprecedented interruption of the supply chain and the transformation from goods to services) that affect the business investigation in the post-epidemic period are not so important now. The report wrote: Our analysis warns against ignoring the deterioration of the current survey data, although these indicators have been too pessimistic in recent years. The pattern of data deterioration in recent weeks is similar to the previous "event-driven" growth slowdown. Consumer spending will slow down with the impact of tariffs, and capital expenditure will suffer the biggest impact in the second half of the year. Goldman Sachs predicts that higher tariffs will push up consumer prices, which in turn will depress actual disposable income and consumer spending. By analyzing the trade war in 2018-2019, the research team found that the transmission of tariffs to inflation was the most significant between March-July 2018 and January-April 2019. According to the report, within two or three months after the implementation of tariffs, the inflation effect usually appears, while consumer spending is expected to slow down soon after the price rises. Historically, core retail sales are the best hard indicators of consumer spending during the economic slowdown, providing more timely real-time signals than monthly consumer spending and disposable income data. The study further points out that the tightening of financial conditions and rising policy uncertainty will have a negative impact on capital expenditure this year. According to Goldman Sachs' capital expenditure pulse model, the growth of capital expenditure in the second half of 2025 will be dragged down by as much as 5.5 percentage points. In the past economic slowdown dominated by capital expenditure, real-time hard data (such as capital goods orders) took about five months to weaken, and it was more noisy than soft data, which usually began to deteriorate about one month after the slowdown began. On the whole, Goldman Sachs expects that the survey data (soft data) will continue to weaken, while the hard data will not begin to weaken until the middle and late summer, when higher prices, weaker expenditures and slower recruitment may begin to appear in official statistics. Goldman Sachs warned not to ignore the deterioration of the current survey data, although these indicators have been too pessimistic in recent years. Up to now, the pattern of recent data deterioration is similar to the previous "event-driven" economic slowdown, but it is still too early to draw strong conclusions from the current limited data. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

Trump is really full of energy. Just a few days after the tariff was eased, he began to shell the Federal Reserve. The market has only been calm for less than a week. Yesterday, the Asian session began, and a new wave of shocks came. The US dollar index fell below 98, and gold hit a record high of 3,400! 1. Why did the dollar suddenly plummet again? 1. The main reason is that the market is worried about the independence of the Federal Reserve. At the weekend, Trump expressed his dissatisfaction with the Fed, delayed cutting interest rates, and threatened to fire Powell. This made the market question the dollar credit system, so he sold US assets (US dollars, US bonds, US stock futures) and bought gold and non-US currencies. 2. The holiday liquidity is poor, which magnifies the market trend. On Monday, markets in Australia, Hong Kong, China and Europe were still in the Easter holiday, and only Japan and the United States were the main markets, so the liquidity of the foreign exchange market was very thin. After the Japanese market opened in the morning, Asian traders first began to short the US dollar. After breaking through the previous resistance levels of 1.14 and 141, EURUSD and USDJPY triggered a series of stop losses, which triggered the intensification of the market. Last night, after Chicago Fed President goolsbee voiced his voice to defend the independence of the Fed, Trump posted on Truth Social again: Many people are calling for a "preventive interest rate cut". With the sharp drop in energy costs, food prices (including Biden's egg crisis! ) significantly reduced, the price trend of most things is downward, and there is almost no inflation. With these costs on such a beautiful downward trend, as I predicted, there is almost no inflation, but unless Mr. Powell, the big loser, lowers interest rates now, the economy may slow down. Europe has cut interest rates seven times. Powell was always "late" except for cutting interest rates during the election to help "Sleeping King Joe" Biden (and then Kamara) get elected. Did it work? Second, is Powell that easy to get fired? According to federal reserve act: 1. Federal Reserve directors are nominated by the President and appointed by the Senate for a term of 14 years. The chairman and vice-chairman are elected from among the directors for a term of four years. (Powell's second term will end in May 2026) 2. The President can "have a reason" to remove a director of the Federal Reserve. "There is a legitimate reason" means that the reason for removal needs to be related to work ability or behavior, such as inefficiency, dereliction of duty or dereliction of duty, etc., and policy differences are not included. 3. The removal of the directors of the United States requires the approval of 2/3 votes of Congress. Moreover, the independence of the Federal Reserve is widely supported by the two parties and the Senate and the House of Representatives, and Congress will not easily open the recall. Obviously, it is almost impossible to fire Powell. Trump is using his usual means of negotiation: "bluffing-extreme pressure-public opinion pressure-creating uncertainty." Trump knows that it is difficult for him to unilaterally dismiss Powell from the legal level. He uses social platforms to frequently criticize the Fed, portraying the high interest rate policy as a factor hindering economic development, and forcing the Fed to make concessions to cut interest rates through public pressure. Third, what do you think of the future? 1. If Powell yields to cut interest rates and the independence of the Federal Reserve is destroyed, it will undoubtedly be a disastrous blow to the US dollar, and its assets will be sold off in an all-round way. 2. If Powell resolutely refuses to cut interest rates, the American economy may continue to deteriorate, the risk of recession will increase, and the dollar will inevitably depreciate. In any case, Trump pushed Powell into a difficult position, and this "knife" was ruthlessly placed on the neck of the dollar. After breaking the 100 mark, the long-term bear market of the dollar may have begun. Figure: After the US dollar index fell below the support of 100, the next resistance level was at 90. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

Under the shadow of tariffs, PMI in April may reveal the first "scar" of the global economy. Earlier on April 2, according to CCTV news, the White House issued a statement saying that Trump would impose a 10% "benchmark tariff" on all countries. Later, on April 9, local time, the White House announced that it would suspend the imposition of tariffs on some countries for 90 days. At present, the market has temporarily subsided, but the real "recoil" will appear next Wednesday. On the same day, the United States, the Eurozone and the United Kingdom will simultaneously announce the initial PMI of manufacturing and service industries in April, which is regarded as the first window to observe the degree of damage to the confidence of enterprises and consumers. The input price index of American manufacturing industry is particularly worthy of attention, or reveals the cost transmission after the tariff falls. In terms of PMI in the euro zone, pay close attention to whether new export orders begin to weaken. At the same time, next Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release a beige book on economic conditions, revealing the actual impact of uncertainty and tariff policies on the regional economy. PMI and Beige Book: The First Forward-looking Data Reflecting Tariff Impact With the landing of tariffs, the focus of the market has shifted from short-term fluctuations to fundamental verification: have enterprises started to reduce investment? Is consumer confidence weakening? All this will be seen in the PMI data. In particular, the input price index in the US manufacturing PMI is called the "first stop" by S&P worldwide to measure the pressure of tariff inflation. In March, the index has risen to the fastest rising level in the past two years, reflecting the increasing cost pressure of enterprises. Analysts predict that the data in April may go higher in the context that 10% import tariffs have taken effect and the reciprocal tariffs are suspended but still pending. Although the market still generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times this year, some institutions have reservations about it, precisely because of the inflation worries brought by tariffs. Bank of Denmark analyst pointed out: "This PMI report is very important. In the current environment of increasing growth concerns, trade uncertainty may have suppressed new orders. " In addition to PMI, the Federal Reserve will release a beige book on the economic situation next Wednesday. The report will provide detailed investigation materials of regional economy, and help the outside world to understand the extent to which government policies and uncertainties have affected enterprise decision-making. In addition, the United States will release a series of economic data one after another, with new home sales in March next Wednesday and existing home sales, durable goods orders and initial jobless claims next Thursday, which will help to evaluate the actual impact of trade shocks more comprehensively. In the euro zone, the initial PMI of France, Germany and the whole euro zone will also be released next Wednesday. RBC pointed out that this will be "the first major test to assess the potential impact of Trump's tariff announcement on European growth", especially to pay close attention to whether new export orders have begun to weaken. Although the reciprocal tariffs between Europe and the United States are temporarily postponed, key products such as steel and automobiles still face high tariffs of 25%, trade tensions remain unresolved, and corporate confidence may have been eroded. British PMI data is also worthy of attention. RBC pointed out: "The impact of US taxation on sentiment earlier this month cannot be ignored, but considering that British service exports to the United States are still tariff-free, the direct impact is relatively limited." Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

Trump challenged Powell? Goldman Sachs warns that the crisis of Fed independence may trigger a surge in gold prices. Seeing that the European Central Bank has repeatedly cut interest rates, Trump once again pointed the finger at Powell and threatened to fire him if he didn't cut interest rates-this is bringing new uncertainty to the financial market. The analysis pointed out that despite the legal ambiguity, both the Trump team and market experts warned that this move may lead to serious market collapse. Goldman Sachs pointed out that whenever the central bank lost its independence in history, it would lead to a crisis of confidence in legal tender, and the price of gold rose sharply. Goldman Sachs predicts that once the Fed becomes a political tool, it will push up the price of gold to $4,500 per ounce. Trump is in a hurry? Three times a day, I named Powell and bombarded him. On Wednesday, local time, Powell delivered a speech at the Chicago Economic Club, during which he reiterated that the tariff policy and other policies made the economy face high uncertainty, and the Fed would not consider cutting interest rates until the situation became clearer. When asked whether the Federal Reserve would intervene when the stock market plummeted, Powell bluntly said no. On Thursday morning, Trump posted on social media: It is always too late and wrong. "Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell released a report yesterday, which is another typical and complete" chaos "! Powell should have cut interest rates like the European Central Bank a long time ago, but he should definitely cut them now. The sooner Powell leaves office, the better! At midday on Thursday, Trump called Powell twice. Trump said: I don't think Powell has done his job well. If I ask, he will have to leave. Powell makes me unhappy. He is always slow to move; After a few minutes, Trump "bombarded" Powell, saying that the Fed should cut interest rates, which the Fed owes to the American people. Powell will face great political pressure. According to media reports, Trump has been talking about firing Powell for some time, but his advisers have been trying to stop it. Trump insisted at the White House press conference that Powell would step down if he asked him to leave. But when Trump was asked if he tried to remove the chairman of the Federal Reserve, he did not give a clear answer; Powell, on the other hand, insisted that he would not leave. Can Trump do it? The key depends on this ruling in May. One of the key questions is: Does Trump have the right to fire Powell? At present, this answer is not clear. According to federal law, Federal Reserve directors are nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate for a term of 14 years; One of them also serves as the chairman for a term of four years. During this period, the president must have "justified reasons" (usually understood as misconduct or dereliction of duty) to dismiss them. This restriction is designed to protect the Fed from political interference. However, a ruling of the US Supreme Court in May may change all this. Wall Street has previously mentioned that the Trump administration has urgently requested the US Supreme Court to authorize the President to dismiss senior officials of two independent federal agencies (Gwynne Wilcox of the National Labor Relations Committee and Cathy Harris of the Merit Protection Committee), and requested that a special hearing be held in May to hear the case. Krishna Guha, an ISI analyst at Evercore, warned that the Trump v. Wilcox ruling may undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve and other government agencies by expanding the president's power and allowing the president to dismiss officials of institutions previously considered to be unaffected by political pressure. Powell also mentioned the case in his speech on Wednesday: "People often talk about this case. I don't think this decision will apply to the Fed, but I'm not sure. This is what we are closely monitoring at present. " Besant and Warren warn that the risk of market collapse is imminent. According to media reports, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bertrand has repeatedly warned White House officials that any attempt to fire Powell may destabilize the financial market. At the same time, Senator Elizabeth Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts, also warned in an interview that firing the chairman of the Federal Reserve could lead to the collapse of the US market. Although Warren often criticizes Powell publicly, she admits that firing the chairman of the Federal Reserve will bring great risks: "Although I often have conflicts with Powell on regulations and interest rates, please understand this: if the President of the United States can fire President Powell, it will cause the American market to collapse." Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist of Schwab Financial Research Center, warned that trying to fire Powell may aggravate the selling of US Treasury bonds and dollars, which usually only appears in emerging market economies or when confidence in a country's governance is shaken. Jones said: "This is something that will not be done in major developed countries. The more he pushes forward, the worse the situation will be." "Even if investors recognize Powell's potential replacement, the damage has been done-bond yields will rise and the dollar will fall. Because there is no credibility at all. " Goldman Sachs: In the extreme case that the Fed is "controlled", the price of gold will soar to $4,500. In this debate about the independence of the Federal Reserve, Goldman Sachs analysts warned that once the Fed loses its independence, the market will face extreme fluctuations. Wall Street has previously mentioned that in Goldman Sachs' extreme scenario forecast, an "obedient Fed" will yield to political pressure and cut interest rates sharply regardless of inflation risks, which will lead to the depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of real interest rates, thus pushing the price of gold to soar. When the Fed's decision is no longer based on economic data but on the political needs of the White House, gold will be snapped up as a safe-haven asset. Goldman Sachs pointed out that whenever the central bank lost its independence in history, it would lead to a crisis of confidence in legal tender, and the price of gold rose sharply. Goldman Sachs predicts that in the extreme tail risk scenario, if the market pays more attention to the risk of changes in the Fed's subordination or the US reserve policy, the central bank's demand will continue to rise to 110 tons/month, and the US recession will bring ETF holdings back to the epidemic level, and speculative positions will reach the top of the historical range. By the end of 2025, the gold price may be close to 4,500 US dollars/ounce. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

Under the pressure of US tariffs, the rumors that the European Central Bank suspended interest rate cuts have been quelled. Investors are now almost certain that the European Central Bank will cut the deposit interest rate to 2.25% at its meeting on April 17th, and cut interest rates at least twice before the end of the year. Trade tensions have severely hit investor confidence, and concerns about economic growth dominate, which may force the European Central Bank to continue to cut interest rates. Tariff policy reshapes the decision-making path of the European Central Bank According to a Bloomberg survey, almost all analysts expect the European Central Bank to cut the deposit interest rate from 2.5% to 2.25% on Thursday. Among the 62 analysts surveyed, only one predicted to suspend interest rate cuts, and another expected to cut interest rates even more. In addition to this week's interest rate cut, investors expect to cut interest rates at least twice before the end of the year, because a stronger euro will help curb price pressure and the possibility of low-cost goods turning to Europe is increasing. Under the background that trade negotiations are still in an uncertain state, European Central Bank President Lagarde is unlikely to provide clear instructions on the next interest rate direction. Lagarde's press conference will be held at 2:45 pm Frankfurt time, 30 minutes later than the central bank's decision to announce it. Officials including Francois Villeroy de Galhau, governor of the French central bank, Olli Rehn of Finland and Gediminas Simkus of Lithuania have recently expressed their support for further easing. However, a few officials still urged caution. Robert Holzmann of Austria said he saw no reason to cut interest rates, but admitted that he was "always willing to accept good arguments". Trade conflicts hit investor confidence. Trump's tariff policy has dealt a serious blow to investor confidence. The investor confidence index of ZEW Research Institute plunged from 51.6 last month to -14 in April, far below the 10 expected by analysts. Achim Wambach, director of the ZEW Institute, said in a statement: "The capricious changes in US trade policy are seriously affecting Germany's expectations. Not only the possible consequences of the announced reciprocal tariffs on global trade, but also the dynamic changes have greatly increased global uncertainty. " The financial market reflects the current pessimism. Since Trump announced the tariff measures, Germany's DAX index has fallen by 5%. Audi has suspended the delivery of products to the United States, and goods arriving after April 2 will not be delivered to dealers for the time being. Mercedes-Benz is also considering withdrawing the cheapest car models, because the new tariffs mean that it is no longer economically feasible to sell these models. The balance between deteriorating economic growth prospects and inflation concerns Germany's top economic research institute has lowered its economic growth forecast to only 0.1% in 2025, warning that the situation may be worse. This may mean that the German economy contracted for the third consecutive year, highlighting the fragility of German economy's dependence on exports and stressing the need to rethink the country's business model. Although some ECB officials are worried about the inflationary effect of Trump tariffs, respondents in the ZEW survey are not so worried. Wambach said: Financial market experts are not aware of the risk that inflation in Germany and the euro zone may soar again. According to their assessment, this provides room for the European Central Bank to boost the economy by further cutting interest rates. The Wall Street Journal analysis believes that the European Central Bank is facing challenges at the game theory level and must find a balance between maintaining economic growth and controlling possible inflationary pressures. However, the current market consensus still tends to think that tariff policy is more of a growth risk than an inflation risk, which provides a reason for the European Central Bank to continue its interest rate reduction path. Investors should pay close attention to the decision of the European Central Bank and Lagarde's remarks on Thursday to get clues about the future policy path. At the same time, they need to be alert to the possible further changes of the Trump administration's trade policy and its impact on the global market. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

Alphadynet, a hedge fund that manages about $10 billion, became the first victim of the collapse of the US debt basis transaction. With the historic collapse of basis trading triggered by Trump's tariff policy, the main fund of hedge fund Alphadyne Asset Management has lost several hundred million dollars. According to Bloomberg News, in the first week of April, Alphadyne International Fund recorded a decline of 2.4%. As of last Friday, the fund's loss for the month further expanded to 10%, and it fell by about 8% during the year. According to reports, the fund focuses on macro and fixed income relative value transactions, with an asset management scale of about 10 billion US dollars. The report quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that the company's "relative value bet" (a euphemism for basis trading) caused most of the losses, and the wrong bet on Japanese assets also aggravated the decline. Losses of this scale are extremely rare for a fund that focuses on relative value strategy, because its strategy should be market neutral in theory, but the high leverage bet on the US debt basis transaction makes even subtle market fluctuations have a huge impact. The basis trading of US Treasury bonds is a trading strategy that takes advantage of the price difference between the US Treasury futures and the spot market, and usually involves a large amount of borrowing, which makes it easy for traders to quit quickly in adverse circumstances. When exit occurs on a large scale, it will disrupt the market. The turmoil caused by Trump's tariff policy led to a sharp rise in long-term US bond yields last week, which led to a large-scale basis transaction collapse. Alphadyne was not the only victim. According to reports, Tudor trader Alexander Phillips had lost about $140 million in April as of the beginning of last week, erasing all the gains before April 2024. Meanwhile, Barry Piafsky, portfolio manager of Eisler Capital, and his team were forced to stop trading after losing millions of dollars in continuous market selling. Due to the recession caused by tariff policy, it challenges the path of normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Japan's 5-year /30-year yield curve continues to steep, once approaching the historical record level, and yen interest rate traders also suffer extensive losses. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.